Eindspel – deel zoveel
De verwachting dat er snel een oplossing gevonden zal worden voor de
Euro-crisis neemt toe. Gisteren leek Draghi een balletje op te gooien:
“A Euro Crisis Deal Emerges – Head of Europe’s Central Bank Signals Bigger
Role if Nations Tighten Fiscal Union – European Central Bank President Mario
Draghi signaled the bank could ramp up its role battling the debt crisis if
euro-zone governments enforce tougher deficit cutting—suggesting outlines
are emerging of a deal that investors have been clamoring to see happen. In
his first appearance before the European Parliament since taking the ECB
helm last month, Mr. Draghi offered a road map for policy makers. He called
on euro-zone governments to quickly craft a "new fiscal compact," calling it
"the most important element to start restoring credibility." He added that
"other elements might follow, but the sequencing matters."
ECB watchers interpreted his remarks as a possible quid pro quo, suggesting
the bank could expand its intervention once governments agree to strengthen
the euro zone’s budget rules. Within hours of Mr. Draghi’s comments, French
President Nicolas Sarkozy warned fellow euro-zone leaders that they need to
accept what they have long resisted—a tighter union bound by enforceable
fiscal rules and the alignment of economic policies—or see dire consequences.
"There cannot be a single currency without economic convergence," he said
in the southern French city of Toulon. "Or the euro zone will explode." “
Daarna kregen we Sarko: “Sarkozy Outlines Steps Forward In EU Integration To
Solve Debt Crisis – French President Nicolas Sarkozy outlined Thursday a
wide raft of reforms the European Union needs to solve the sovereign debt
crisis that is afflicting the euro zone, including automatic sanctions for
countries that don’t respect budget rules and more qualified majority voting
within the currency bloc.
Sarkozy, speaking from the southern port town of Toulon, said he'll present
detailed proposals to change the EU treaty jointly with German Chancellor
Angela Merkel in Paris on Monday.
The way ahead for the 27-country political union and for the smaller
17-country currency bloc requires increased solidarity between all member
countries, as well as stricter controls on their budgets, Sarkozy said.
"If we want the euro to survive, we have no choice: we need to oppose a
flawless solidarity to all those that doubt the viability of the euro and
speculate on its break up," he said.
The European Central Bank will play a vital role in addressing the euro zone
crisis, Sarkozy said, and while he highlighted its independence, he hinted
that the Frankfurt-based bank will take steps to avoid a brutal downturn. “
En vanochtend Merkel: “Merkel blijft tegen eurobonds - De Duitse
bondskanselier Merkel vindt een gemeenschappelijke financiering van de
staatsschulden in de eurozone niet gewenst. De uitgifte van euro-obligaties
is "geen bijdrage aan het overwinnen van de crisis".Volgens Merkel is de
schuldencrisis niet in één paukenslag op te lossen. Het zal jaren duren
voordat de crisis is bezworen.
De Duitse regeringsleider verzette zich ook tegen een activere rol van de
Europese Centrale Bank (ECB). Daarmee reageert Merkel op de suggestie dat de
ECB staatsleningen moet opkopen van probleemlanden, om zo de hoge rente die
onder meer Italië en Spanje moeten betalen te drukken.
Ze sprak in het Duitse parlement over de top van regeringsleiders die vandaag
over een week wordt gehouden.
Merkel maakte duidelijk dat ze in Brussel streeft naar vergaande
verdragswijzigingen om meer begrotingsdiscipline in de afzonderlijke
eurolanden af te dwingen. Gisteren verklaarde
de Franse president Sarkozy zich daar ook toe bereid, nadat Parijs daar
altijd tegen is geweest. “
De drie hoofrolspelers in dit drama zijn dus iets opgeschoven, maar voor de
conclusie dat nu de problemen zijn opgelost is het veel te vroeg. Mathijs
Bouman beschrijft
wat er volgende week moet gebeuren.
Om te zien wat ‘de markten’ van de ontwikkelingen vinden, zou ik aanraden het
nieuws te filteren op geld- en kapitaalmarktnieuws. Voorbeeld: “Wednesday's
move by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and other top
central banks to lower the cost of existing dollar swap lines by half a
percentage point has driven interbank costs off their worst levels. But some
gauges of money market strain stayed near end-2008 levels with analysts
saying a return to more normal interbank lending required a substantive
solution to the debt crisis. London interbank offered rates for three-month
dollars fell to 0.52722 percent from 0.52889 percent, but its premium over
anticipated central bank rates - a key gauge of market stress - was still at
its highest since mid-2009.The premium to European banks of swapping euros
for three-month dollars as reflected by closely watched euro-dollar basis
swap rates fell to one-week lows but was far from cheaper levels seen in
April.
The lower price for central bank money should encourage European banks to
borrow more dollars from the ECB at its three-month tender next week,
although the stigma associated with the use of the facility may prevail.
"It is not only the cost of these swap lines that has acted as a deterrent but
the signal of distress their usage implies - yesterday's price cut doing
nothing to address the latter," said
Rabobank strategist Richard McGuire.”
Ander onderwerp waar ‘de markt’ naar lijkt: collateral. Draghi had het er
gisteren nog over: ““We are aware of the continuing difficulties for banks
due to the stress on sovereign bonds, the tightness of funding markets and
scarcity of eligible collateral in some financial segments. We are also aware
of the problems of maturity mismatches on balance sheets, the challenges of
raising levels of capital and the cyclical risks related to the downturn.””
Meestal is het nieuws niet al te best voor de banken, maar da’s bekend. Nieuw
is dat ze een manier hebben gevonden om wat minder te hoeven
herstructureren: “ Europe's Banks Find Refuge In Legal Restructuring --
European banks are restructuring their businesses outside their home
countries in ways that reduce the impact of tough new regulations that were
adopted in response to the financial crisis. In the U.S., U.K. and Portugal,
at least a few large European banks have altered their legal structures or
moved assets and business lines between units, partly in an attempt to avoid
local rules and oversight, according to bank disclosures and people
familiar with the matter.”
Voor de Friday Fun kijken
we vandaag naar Nout Wellink bij de commissie De Wit. Ben benieuwd welke
lessen hij heeft geleerd van het begin vd kredietcrisis.
Prettig w/e!
Jacob Jurg is verbonden aan AFS en
verantwoordelijk voor nieuws en research. De informatie in deze
column bevat geen individueel beleggingsadvies of aanbeveling tot het doen
van bepaalde beleggingen.
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